Friday, January 22, 2021

futuretimeline.net: Some humans are becoming more non-biological than biological (Future Predictions)


https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2080-2089.htm


Today, the average citizen has access to a wide array of biotechnology implants and personal medical devices. These include fully artificial organs that never fail, bionic eyes and ears providing Superman-like senses, nanoscale brain interfaces to augment the wearer's intelligence, synthetic blood and bodily fluids that can filter deadly toxins and provide hours' worth of oxygen in a single breath.

Some of the more adventurous citizens are undergoing voluntary amputations to gain prosthetic arms and legs, boosting strength and endurance by orders of magnitude. There is even artificial skin based on nanotechnology, which can be used to give the appearance of natural skin when applied to metallic limbs.

These various upgrades have become available in a series of gradual, incremental steps over preceding decades, such that today, they are pretty much taken for granted. They are now utilised by a wide sector of society – with even those in developing countries now having access to some of the available upgrades due to exponential trends in price performance.

Were a fully upgraded person of the 2080s to travel back in time a century and be integrated into the population, they would be superior in almost every way imaginable. They could run faster and for longer distances than the greatest athletes of the time; they could survive multiple gunshot wounds; they could cope with some of the most hostile environments on Earth without too much trouble. Intellectually, they would be considered geniuses – thanks to various devices merged directly with their brain.

futuretimeline.net: Transhuman Sports Competitors (Future Predictions)


https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcentury/2036.htm


By the late 2030s, genetic therapies and bio-technological implants have become so cheap, accessible and mainstream that it has dramatically altered the world of sports and recreation. A combination of personalised DNA sequencing (now ubiquitous), gene-editing options like CRISPR, and smart drug delivery methods has led to the gradual acceptance of do-it-yourself biology and the destigmatisation of performance-enhancing techniques. New forms of robotic and cybernetic integration are also seeing widespread use, pushing the boundaries of human ability.

In 2016, the first "cybathlon" had taken place in Zurich, Switzerland.** This competition was designed to offer amputees and other disabled people the chance to upgrade their physical abilities, using experimental prototypes from research labs and commercially successful products from large companies. These included exoskeletons to make stepping easier for paraplegics, as well as sensors implanted in athletes' bodies to directly control machines. Subsequent years would see major advances in prosthetics and other devices, some of which were officially introduced into sports. Initially confined to those with disabilities, the various upgrades eventually began to match and even exceed the capabilities of normal humans. Alongside breakthroughs in gene therapy and stem cells, this led to many public debates and conversations about the legality of bodily enhancements, with calls to provide options for regular, able-bodied competitors.

In addition to a more dynamic and exciting Paralympics, a third "super athlete" event category is a feature of the 2036 and 2040 Olympics.** This aims to showcase a new generation of enhanced "transhumans" with superior strength, speed and endurance. While something of a novelty at first, the event is soon taken seriously and becomes a permanent fixture, drawing in huge audiences and sponsorship deals. With sport becoming ever more commercialised each year, transhumans are heavily funded and sponsored by pharmaceutical, biotech, electronics and other firms marketing their products and services.

The new abilities offered to super athletes are numerous and diverse.* Treatments are available to increase red blood cell counts, thus boosting oxygen delivery by up to 50% and providing greater endurance. Genes can be altered to block pain pathways in nerves, allowing athletes to play through pain. Deactivating the MSTN gene can double muscle mass, while the PEPCK gene can be tweaked to burn fatty acid for energy without producing lactic acid, meaning athletes can run at top speed for 60% longer. Modifying the LRP5 gene can increase bone density, while the TNC and COL5A1 genes can improve resistance to tendon and ligament injury. Most athletes can now recover from injuries within days, rather than weeks or months.

These and other treatments are now safe and legal – and used not just in athletics, but a whole range of sports and recreational activities. Whereas in the past, success was determined to some extent by the genetic lottery, a more level playing field is now possible with drugs being administered to specific, pre-determined amounts for each competitor.

Other changes in the world of sport include dramatic improvements to stadium infrastructure. Advances in ultra-lightweight carbon fibre allow morphing of buildings, roofs and tracks, to cater for any event. Giant, flexible video screens can be integrated on walls and other surfaces, along with massive holographic displays for action replays. Nanotechnology used on track surfaces and in sports equipment can improve grip, or create lighter structures. Driverless cars remove the need for dedicated parking lots, meaning a stadium's footprint can be shrunk considerably, or alternatively used for greater capacity with some having 250,000 seats. Artificial intelligence can choose seats based on social media contacts or other factors, while facial recognition can monitor for signs of trouble and prevent criminal activity. 

For those watching from home, highly immersive VR and other options are now available. For example, some players now wear contact lenses featuring built-in cameras that can stream video to provide a first-person view of the action.

Future Fashion Trend Predictions/What will clothes Look Like in 100 Years




Reading Time: minutes

In 100 years, think of that shirt you just bought having the ability to change colours based on the temperature of your body, the amount of light that’s hitting the fabric, or simply just for the sake of changing colours for style. This is possible because the future of clothing is nanotechnology. 

How Will The Fashion Industry Change In The Future? 

Fashion as we know it has always been changing; from 17th-century men wearing narrow-brimmed hats and 18th-century women wearing corsets, girls in the 1900s started to wear trousers to the trend of 2000s low-rise jeans, men also have traded out their top hats for 21st-century’s baseball caps and beanies. 

The question as to why clothing over the years has been endlessly evolving is that it operates in response to the events happening at the current time. For example, a short term timeline of fads from the 1950s to the 1980s were mostly all in response to peoples’ views of the times.

In the 60s, events like Woodstock paved the way for the fashion industry with people beginning to wear tie-dye as a universal symbol of opposition and freedom until the 80s arrived and technology started to transform society. The first space shuttle was created, IBM’s personal computer launched for the public, and music videos started to take off; bold pops of colour and metallics were defining the new fashion.

As time continues, technology then and now is influencing the fashion industry and trends of the future without many even realising it. Technology has become ever more important to society with the future likely to see this intelligence embedded into actual clothing design.

What Will Clothes Look Like In The Future?

Fashion in 100 years from now might be entirely different to anything we can predict, as factors such as COVID-19 may yet further influence society in ways we previously couldn’t have imagined. Masks being the new norm is something that no one would have been able to guess becoming a staple of peoples’ wardrobes worldwide.

As we move forward, society is starting to realise that the number of clothes may not be as important as the overall quality. People are sick of being able to wear a shirt and feel like it is no longer valuable or interesting after the first wear, which the pandemic and technology will have a big say in also how trends will unfurl. COVID-19 could define a new definition of luxury as early as the next 50 years. Technology and artificial intelligence may impact the diversity and wearability of a simple shirt meaning that answering a question such as what will clothes look like in the future can be a difficult proposition. The list below however gives a generous insight into the fashion industry’s plans for design and trends to come:

Futuristic Clothes: Formulated after the sleek form of smartphones and other tech devices, the fashion industry may be heading towards the use of futuristic-looking clothing. Common colour schemes potentially to be used will be metallics, shades of black and streamlined shapes, representing the colours and shapes devices usually resemble as fashion begins to literally embody the future. 

Clothing Designed for VR Glasses: For people not wanting to be an “outfit repeater”, clothes specifically designed around virtual reality glasses may be the wave of the future. Fashion optimised by the use of this technology will allow onlookers to see their clothing in a different form than what the person may actually be wearing. For example, a person may be wearing a white shirt but when onlookers have glasses on, the clothing may appear to change colour or have an extension only visible through the lens. 

No Sizing: In a way for the fashion industry to save on materials and eliminate the chances of leftover cloth being tossed out, clothes may start being specifically tailored to each person’s exact size. Possibly in the future, companies’ use of clothing sizes as technology advances, that may entail scanning your body for measurements and then proceeding to make the clothing. This new way of creating clothing ultimately reduces the need for mass production and helps out the environment immensely. The industry currently uses over 79 billion cubic meters of water each year, but hopefully, with the use of technology, clothes will only be produced when a scan is completed for a company to then use only needed water and materials. The other added bonus of this method is consumers having custom-sized clothing. 

Data-Gathering Clothing: Recently, companies have started using smart materials to build their clothing and products which will be able to collect data on the person wearing the pieces. For example, Nike is working on basketball shoes Nike Adapt BB that will be able to track a person’s foot movement and produce data on whether or not the person could potentially injure themselves during a game. From this perspective, the fashion of the future could be more communicative and intertwined than ever before.

A Decrease in Fast-Fashion: The pandemic is changing consumers’ shopping behaviour, it may be everlasting as customers are choosing necessities over materialistic items. Fast-fashion marketing itself as being the most updated trend style at the time hence the reasoning to buy, people in the future may not be looking for that, in exchange for sustainable luxury clothing instead. Well-made, durable, inexpensive clothing that can get multiple uses out of without going out of style may top the charts as the most desirable items for shoppers to buy. 

Handmade: Quarantine has turned many people towards crafts, including hand-making their own clothing. As 2020 goes on, reports have shown an increase in secondhand markets, specifically thrift store ThredUp has seen a 24% faster climb than retail industries as a whole. A prediction for fashion in 100 years from now could be the increased hobby and production of handmade pieces inspired by the pandemics current effect on society.

Rental Economy: Recently, the clothing rental industry has seen a huge increase as people are wanting to feel newness when wearing clothes without the hardship of paying full price for products. As time goes on, this trend may continue to benefit both consumers with new clothing as well as limit the environmental impact by being able to recycle and reuse products instead of just tossing things out.

Chameleon Clothing: The use of artificial intelligence in the fashion industry may end up having the ability for clothing to change colours, temperature, and size. Embroidered into the textiles of material, this technology will be able to react to not only a person’s body temperature but also the amount of light a person is exposed to. For example, the fashion of the future may be able to turn a black shirt, white if it detects a person’s body temperature increases because of sun exposure. Or during a workout, clothing could possibly gain elasticity and then reform itself once activities are completed. It’s hard to say exactly when these products will be available to the public but smart material companies have been working diligently on different chameleon models. 

Extravagant Fashion: Regarding the clothes of the future, 2050 could reach a whole new level of extravagant clothing. Trends are already showing the use of bold colours that will likely continue within the next 100 years but to many people’s surprise, clothes have the possibility to become more 3-Dimensional. Society is looking for unique ways of showing their personal styles which the fashion industry is taking into hand with the actual construction of materials. Whether it’s oversized puffy coats or protruding long sleeves, being bold will be a leading factor in clothing design of the future. 

Customized Pieces: 3D printers can eventually become a necessity in people’s homes as customized clothing and products are on the rise. Although highly expensive in 2020, within the next 100 years, engineers may be successfully producing these printers at an affordable price for the general public. With this as a possibility, people will be able to custom-make their own clothing and integrate their unique personal style and designs into 3D printed clothing.

Conclusion

In 100 years, we can only imagine what fashion trends will be going on and what our clothing will look like. We know for a fact that technology will play a role in clothing but we won’t fully be able to depict how society will be until we get there with time. Trends will constantly be changing, technology will be growing, effects of the current pandemic may be here to stay but overall, we can guarantee the fashion industry will be making an unique, bold, tech-based impact with clothing.

futuretimeline.net Timeline Predictions

The 21st century

The 21st century began with the United States as the sole superpower in the absence of the Soviet Union, with China emerging as a potential superpower. The debate over what should be done about fossil fuel pollution and alternative energy raged in the new century after most of the 20th century was marked by rapid industrial expansion. With the Cold War over and Islamic fundamentalist-related terrorism on the rise, the United States and its allies turned their attention to the Middle East.

Digital technology – in its early stages of mainstream use in the 1980s and 1990s – became widely adopted by most of the world, though concerns about stress and anti-sociality from the overuse of mobile phones, the Internet and related technologies remained controversial. Over 1.5 billion people worldwide used the Internet by the end of the first decade and over 4 billion (more than half the world's population) used cell phones.

A global financial downturn – triggered by a sub-prime mortgage crisis – resulted in severe and long-lasting consequences for the U.S. and much of the world. Growing divides between rich and poor exacerbated public resentment of their governments and elites. Citizens became more and more aware of excessive surveillance and privacy intrusion. At the same time, social media and other technologies exposed the corruption inherent in the political and economic system, while facilitating the organisation of movements and protests.

A new set of crises would emerge in the 2020s. Climate change was beginning to have a significant impact on worldwide commodities – in particular, food and water supplies. In the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere, growing instability led to a number of resource wars. Perversely, the hunt for fossil fuels continued, with even the Arctic becoming a political and economic battleground as nations sought to claim the last remaining deposits.

The 2030s were marked by a rapid, worldwide shift towards clean energy, algae biofuel and other renewable sources – aided by startling breakthroughs in nanotechnology. This was followed by progress in nuclear fusion, though widespread adoption would have to wait until later decades. Despite this, conflict was now brewing around much of the world. Africa, Asia and other regions were suffering mightily due to food shortages and a growing influx of refugees affected by climate change, resource wars and political instability.

Exponential advances in computing power – in parallel with genetics, nanotechnology and robotics – continued into the 2040s, leading to what many called the birth of "transhumanism". Ever smaller, more complex and sophisticated devices were becoming implantable and integrated within the human body – able to combat disease, enhance the senses and provide entertainment or communication in ways that simply were not possible before. Geopolitics was undergoing a revolution too, with India now surpassing the U.S. in terms of economic power and even threatening to overtake China in the near future.

Mankind began to escape the confines of its crowded home planet with a permanent colony on Mars in the 2050s. Even greater advances in computing power saw AI beginning to play a major role in business and government decisions. Economic growth was now under severe strain, however, due to ecological impacts, resource scarcity, demographic trends, technological unemployment and other factors.

By 2060, the world's population had begun to level off and plateau. This was partly a result of declining fertility rates (aided by improvements in education and birth control), but also from significant numbers of deaths caused by deteriorating environmental conditions. Entire nations were now being devastated by the effects of climate change. Despite advances in technology, the fundamental problem remained that humanity was consuming too much, too fast, beyond what the Earth could sustainably provide. Desperate attempts were made to improve carbon capture and geoengineering methods, but the sheer magnitude of this crisis would persist for decades to come.

The 2070s saw major growth in the use of fusion power. Accelerated space development also marked this time, with expansion of the lunar colonies and their automated mining operations. By now, a full-scale environmental catastrophe was unfolding on Earth, with sea levels forcing the large-scale evacuation of cities.

With continuing advances in AI, the 2080s saw an explosion in scientific discoveries. This helped to slow the rise in global temperatures and pave the way for a more sustainable future in the 22nd century. Transhumanism was now a mainstream phenomenon, the average citizen becoming heavily reliant on brain-computer interfaces and other implantable devices, contributing to a decline in religious adherence.

By the 2090s, it became clear that Homo sapiens were no longer the dominant species on the planet. Much of the day-to-day running of world affairs was now handled exclusively by ultra-fast, ultra-intelligent machines, robots and virtual entities.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

from aclu.org


The American Civil Liberties Union believes the death penalty inherently violates the constitutional ban against cruel and unusual punishment and the guarantees of due process of law and of equal protection under the law. Furthermore, we believe that the state should not give itself the right to kill human beings – especially when it kills with premeditation and ceremony, in the name of the law or in the name of its people, and when it does so in an arbitrary and discriminatory fashion.

Capital punishment is an intolerable denial of civil liberties and is inconsistent with the fundamental values of our democratic system.  The death penalty is uncivilized in theory and unfair and inequitable in practice.  Through litigation, legislation, and advocacy against this barbaric and brutal institution, we strive to prevent executions and seek the abolition of capital punishment. 

The ACLU’s opposition to capital punishment incorporates the following fundamental concerns:

  • The death penalty system in the US is applied in an unfair and unjust manner against people, largely dependent on how much money they have, the skill of their attorneys, race of the victim and where the crime took place.  People of color are far more likely to be executed than white people, especially if thevictim is white

  • The death penalty is a waste of taxpayer funds and has no public safety benefit. The vast majority of law enforcement professionals surveyed agree that capital punishment does not deter violent crime; a survey of police chiefs nationwide found they rank the death penalty lowest among ways to reduce violent crime.  They ranked increasing the number of police officers, reducing drug abuse, and creating a better economy with more jobs higher than the death penalty as the best ways to reduce violence.  The FBI has found the states with the death penalty have the highest murder rates.

  • Innocent people are too often sentenced to death.  Since 1973, over 156 people have been released from death rows in 26 states because of innocence.  Nationally, at least one person is exonerated for every 10 that are executed.  

Sunday, January 17, 2021

Quora: Is the notion of a meritocracy inherently unethical and/or paradoxical?

No, just unworkable.

A meritocracy sounds terrific, but there are two key problems with the idea.

  1. It’s impossible for anything non-trivial to define the qualifications for a job to determine the “best” in all circumstances, and even if you could do it at one moment the requirements for many jobs change over time.
  2. Even if you could do #1, it’s impossible to develop and administer testing criteriaobjectively to determine a ranking of who the “best” people are for a position.

I’ve been through a fair number of hiring decisions on both ends of the process, and my experience is that it always breaks down something like this:

  1. You develop the best reasonable criteria for the job you can, usually relying heavily on “had success doing a similar job in the past”.
  2. You do a first round of interviews and mostly weed out the people who are obviously unqualified.
  3. You do a second round of interviews and try to see if anyone really jumps out of the pack. They usually don’t.
  4. You look at the acceptable candidates and pick the “best” almost entirely by “gut feel”. That’s where all sorts of bias tends to creep in.


https://www.quora.com/q/agoraphilosophy/Is-the-notion-of-a-meritocracy-inherently-unethical-and-or-paradoxical-1?ch=10&share=446ab542&srid=u4smXE


I believe (now) in a universal basic income…and once it’s there, I think it would be unethical and unwise to take it away. Even if you think the economy has recovered, it’s better to overprepare than to underprepare. We’re setting the stage for a future where America is still the main superpower with a bustling economy and happy, employed (or otherwise not impoverished) citizens. A UBI would help immensely to prepare us for a future where technology, illegal immigration (sorry to say, but it’s true) and college graduates unable to get a job have contributed. In a post-Corona world, with companies realizing how few workers they need and that they can cut costs by getting rid of the office and hiring part-timers, we need a good,stable economic plan and almost everyone agrees it would fix things basically immediately. They’re just not willing, fiscally, to take the risk. It’s a shame because other countries are giving their citizens a monthly stipend so their economies don’t tank. It’s definitely a good investment for a country’s future (and it’s not like a third-world country where they can’t afford it), and it’s the ethical thing to do, just like universal healthcare, in order to use whatever taxpayer money we get (hopefully mostly from the rich, and since we have a new Democratic president being sworn into office soon, I’m not worried about the middle and lower classes) as efficiently as possible. Ethically, that means saving lives and ending suffering. Realistically, we can’t use all of our money for third-world countries’ healthcare, but once we get our economy back on track, we’ll be able to contribute more time and money to the effort. In a world economy rampant with sweatshops and outsourced jobs, there will definitely be a small trickle-down effect that could grow if taken care of properly, without legislation being blocked or a Republican president selfishly and unethically trying to get votes or hurriedly fix his past mistakes.

I’d like to see a future where people are so well-off and kind due to post-Corona legislation and a sense that we’re all in this together that they contribute enough to charity that we no longer need to give the UN money to take care of them. Although some people may be angry at the idea of using taxpayer money to save lives, and you can’t save everyone or allocate too high of a percentage to it, saving lives should be a high priority in thinking of how to ethically, efficiently, and in a way people can more or less agree upon, distribute tax revenue. However, like most Libertarian ideals, this is unrealistic and should be considered a point to eventually work your way to and reach (probably by taking risks with your money like by investing in a UBI and infrastructure and by thinking both long-term and short-term like President Trump did when he tried to create more American jobs by ending NAFTA). We’re currently working on green legislation as a long-term project and I’d like to see everyone able to afford an air conditioner before people in Denver are able to go swimming in December. Once healthcare legislation is enacted and we are able to come back from the pandemic I’d like to see more emphasis on saving lives and ending suffering. Everyone knows that maintaining roads saves lives, yet people still selfishly vote against it all the time. They’re more concerned about things that special-interest groups can advertise and lobby for, which means that you have to have a certain number of people (like the difference between a church and a cult) and those interests have to have gained traction with time, passion, or both. I see lots of stuff against drunk driving but not much on road maintenance even though they’re both similar issues. If they collaborated (teaching people about improper road maintenance killing people, etc.) maybe more lives would be saved. I think the country has just grown up a little bit selfish and competitive, and almost half of it is against using taxpayer money to save lives with a healthcare package, even as Corona claims hundreds of thousands of lives. And the divide is more obvious than ever— across states, political affiliations, lines of work, socioeconomic status, ethnic background. And not wearing a mask because it’s a semi-political statement is just dumb. Besides people who don’t wear masks, there are people who think we shouldn’t have a police force to protect people who can’t protect themselves. I wrote previously that I thought we might eventually come to see things like unethical political affiliations as symptomatic of a mental disorder. I thought about it, and now I think that we’ll eventually come to see ourselves as too stupid to take care of ourselves (essentially meriting legislation like Social Security and healthcare insurance regulation), yet too smart to have any kind of mental disorder. We’re just selfish babies when it comes to our priorities in decision-making, and there are all sorts of reasons why. I hope that whoever reads this and agrees with me decides to take action and write a letter or sign a petition. We are smart, yet stupid, and we need not only good politicians but good role models and leaders. Please take time on MLK Jr. Day (the National Day of Service) to think about your effect in the world, past, present, and future, and how you can help, whether it be in a little way or with all your heart and spirit. Thank you for your time.